[2026 Prediction]
The “magic of low prices” will be broken in the e-commerce market. Customs law reforms and AI agents will change sales strategies for a new era.
In 2025, the Japanese e-commerce market saw the revision of the “Four Product Safety Laws,” which put an end to the gray area known as “personal responsibility” regarding the safety of overseas products. Now, in 2026, an even bigger transformation is looming, this time changing “prices” and “purchasing methods” themselves.
The abolition of preferential treatment for cross-border e-commerce and the automation of shopping through generative AI: what kind of consumption will we experience in 2026, when these two trends will converge, and how should businesses behave?
1. A major obstacle in 2026: Review of the “duty-free quota” for customs duties and consumption tax
The rapid growth of overseas discount platforms such as Temu and SHEIN has been driven by a powerful weapon: the “tax exemption system for small imports“.
If the total taxable price is 10,000 yen or less (approximately 16,666 yen or less on a payment basis), customs duties and consumption tax are exempt.
However, it has been decided that from 2026 onwards, this “loophole” of tax exemption will be abolished or significantly tightened in order to maintain fairness with domestic businesses.
Ministry of Finance: Overview of tax reform https://www.mof.go.jp/tax_policy/tax_reform/
Costs of personal imports soar
Until now, it has been possible to purchase products cheaply under the pretext of “personal imports” without paying the 10% consumption tax or customs duties of several percent to several tens of percent. However, from now on, the government will shift to a tax on all items starting from 1 yen. This means that cheap products shipped directly from overseas will effectively be forced to increase in cost by 20 to 30%.
This legal change will strongly encourage consumers to return to Japan, thinking, “If it takes a long time for goods to arrive from overseas and there’s tax involved, I’ll just buy from a reliable domestic shop even if it’s a little more expensive.”
2. Top 10 Best-Selling Products in the E-Commerce Market in 2026
It is predicted that in 2026, there will be a growing polarization between “AI consumption” as the pinnacle of efficiency and “analog relaxation” as a reaction to it.
1. “AI-based” shopping
A service in which generative AI analyzes individual preferences and suggests and automatically orders what you want without the need for a search.
2. “Analog Stationery” for Adults
As a reaction to digital fatigue, there has been a boom in experiences that involve writing and sticking, such as sticker books, high-end notebooks, and fountain pens.
3. Comfort appliances
Against the backdrop of social anxiety and stress, smart lighting that improves sleep quality and devices that optimize scents and sounds are being developed.
4. Frozen foods such as Kogumapan (Korean sweets)
It has become common to order trendy overseas products that are popular on social media via quick-frozen delivery, available exclusively through e-commerce.
5. Next-generation wellness wearables
This is not just a pedometer, but a highly functional device that manages stress levels and blood sugar spikes in real time.
6. Blind box (figure with unknown contents)
The sales format that sells the excitement of “not knowing what’s going to come out” has expanded to include everyday items beyond hobbies.
7. Ethical and upcycled clothing
“Long-lasting use” and “low environmental impact” have become status symbols, and e-commerce transactions of second-hand and remade goods have skyrocketed.
8. Personalized Supplements
A subscription to vitamins and proteins formulated just for you based on your test kit.
9. Anti-algorithm curated selection
These are one-of-a-kind items selected by trusted individuals (micro-influencers), rather than recommended by AI.
10. Disaster prevention and off-grid supplies
The combination of camping demand and disaster prevention awareness has led to the everyday use of large-capacity portable power sources and foldable solar panels.
3. Three sales strategies to win in 2026
In an age where customs laws have changed and AI is doing the shopping for you, traditional “SEO (search engine optimization)” measures alone are no longer sufficient.
Strategy 1: Optimization for AI agents
In 2026, consumers will be typing keywords into search boxes less frequently. Instead, AI shopping assistants like Amazon’s Rufus will recommend products that are best for you. For businesses, the top priority will be to prepare structured data that allows AI to correctly interpret information, and to manage the indicators that AI determines as “trustworthy” (such as the quality of reviews and a low return rate).
Strategy 2: Taking advantage of tariff revisions: “Domestic inventory and domestic inspection”
As direct shipping from overseas becomes more difficult due to tax issues, having inventory in Japan and undergoing strict inspections based on the “Four Product Safety Laws” that came into effect in 2025 will be the biggest brand. “Honesty branding” that combines “transparent accounting with customs duties included” and “peace of mind guarantee by a domestic manager” will be the strongest countermeasure against low-cost cross-border e-commerce.
Strategy 3: “Live Video Commerce” that sells mood and experience
If tariffs increase prices, we must communicate the “emotional value” that justifies the price. It is important to convey the feel, sound (ASMR), and “mood” of the product through short videos and live broadcasts such as TikTok Shop, shifting the battlefield from “spec comparison” to “shared experiences”.
Conclusion: Trust will be the greatest weapon in 2026
The planned revision of the Customs Law and the revision of the duty-free quota in 2026 may at first glance appear to be a barrier to increased costs for businesses attempting to enter the Japanese market from overseas. However, if viewed from another perspective, this is also the beginning of a new stage where businesses can move away from “opaque low-price competition” and be properly evaluated based on the quality of their products and the reliability of their brands.
Until now, within the vague framework of “personal imports” and “duty-free quotas,” there have been some businesses that have neglected safety standards and tax obligations, and as a result, even overseas brands that make serious efforts have often been subjected to the prejudice that “cheap means poor quality.”
However, the following changes will occur with the revision of the law in 2026.
- Differentiation as an “official player”: By complying with Japanese safety standards (PS mark, etc.) and making the process of paying appropriate customs duties and consumption tax transparent, we will be able to provide Japanese consumers with “the same sense of security as domestic Japanese brands.”
- From price competition to value competition: Cost leveling through universal taxation will put an end to mere price wars. This will create an environment where overseas businesses can directly deliver their unique, superior designs, innovative features, and brand stories to Japanese consumers.
- Strengthening collaboration with platforms: Clarifying regulations will strengthen our position as an “official store” on the platform, enabling us to make sound marketing investments that will lead to long-term, repeat customers.
In 2026, the Japanese e-commerce market will no longer be a place chosen solely for its low prices. Only overseas businesses that can prove they are “honest partners who respect Japanese law and put consumer safety and interests first” will be able to build a solid share of the Japanese market.
At AirTrade, we hope to continue to be the best partner for overseas businesses to take advantage of these new rules and expand their business in Japan to new heights and farther.
[A note on rankings]
※The best-selling and forecast rankings in this article are not official rankings from any particular platform, but are an original selection based on publicly available information from Nikkei Trendy, major malls, etc. Actual results may differ depending on the timing of legal reforms and changes in the market environment.
